Background
The year 2026 presents an ironic face for the Indonesian labor market. On one hand, the Ministry of Manpower recorded 43,805 workers laid off between January and July 2026. West Java saw the highest number of layoffs at 8,830, followed by East Java, Banten, DKI Jakarta, and Central Java (Katadata, August 24, 2026).
This figure remains provisional, as workers have up to six months to file claims for the Job Loss Security (JKP) program. This means the actual number of workers affected by layoffs could be significantly higher than currently recorded.
On the other hand, the business sector is struggling to find workers with the competencies required for the era of digital transformation and artificial intelligence (AI).
The East Ventures Digital Competitiveness Index (EV-DCI) 2026 report shows that Indonesia's overall digital competitiveness has improved. However, the human resources pillar is the only component that has declined, dropping by 2.5 points (Industry.co.id, July 15, 2026).
The digital talent gap between regions remains significant. The digital human resources score in Java is approximately 2.3 times higher than in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Ahead of the Indonesia Human Capital Business Summit (IHCBS) 2026, HR practitioners have again highlighted the unresolved issue of the mismatch between educational output and industry needs (Liputan6, August 12, 2026).
When these two conditions are viewed together, a critical question arises: how can tens of thousands of people lose their jobs while companies simultaneously struggle to find suitable workers?
In my view, one of the root causes lies in a function often treated as a mere administrative activity: human resource planning.
Understanding HR Planning
Conceptually, human resource planning is not just about calculating how many employees a company needs.
Hasibuan (2016) explains that HR planning is the activity of organizing the workforce to align with company needs and ensuring they can work effectively and efficiently to help achieve organizational goals.
Meanwhile, Handoko (2014) views HR planning as a series of activities conducted to anticipate business demands and future environmental changes, while simultaneously preparing to meet the workforce needs arising from those conditions.
From these two definitions, two key terms emerge: alignment and anticipation.
HR planning requires organizations to look far ahead. Companies need to know their intended business direction, the types of competencies required, the number of workers needed, and how those needs can be met.
In general, the HR planning process includes analyzing current workforce conditions, forecastingdemandandsupplyof labor, analyzing the gap between the two, and developing programs to close that gap. Such programs can be implemented through recruitment, training, rotation, promotion, or career development.
Mangkunegara (2017) also emphasizes that effective human resource management must align with organizational goals rather than existing as a standalone administrative activity.
The Problem Is Not Just a Lack of Jobs, but a Lack of Planning
In my opinion, the simultaneous phenomenon of rising layoffs and the scarcity of digital talent shows that many organizations still manage human resources reactively.
Companies may recruit in large numbers when business is booming, only to conduct layoffs when conditions change. The problem is that this process is sometimes done without adequate mapping of the competencies the company will truly need in the coming years.
As a result, when technology and business models evolve rapidly, companies face two problems at once: having employees whose skills no longer fully match organizational needs, while simultaneously lacking workers who possess new skills.
Yet, if HR planning were conducted seriously, changes in competency requirements should be anticipated early on.
Digital transformation and the development of AI are not sudden phenomena. Signs of these changes have been visible for years. Companies with mature HR planning should have started preparingupskillingandreskillingprograms for their existing employees.
By doing so, companies would not always have to take the shortcut of laying off long-term staff to search for new talent from outside—which, in reality, is not always easy to find.
I also observe that the HR function in some companies is still treated as a support function rather than a strategic organizational partner.
Business plans are often drafted by top management first, with the HR department involved only after the business direction is set and additional labor is needed. This pattern causes HR planning to always be one step behind organizational change.
Ideally, when a company begins planning for expansion, business process digitalization, automation, or AI implementation, the issue of HR readiness should be discussed from the initial stage.
Companies need to know whether their current workforce has the necessary competencies, who can be developed, what competencies are still lacking, and how much time is needed to prepare those workers.
Digital Talent Inequality Must Also Be Anticipated
The 2026 EV-DCI data showing digital talent inequality between regions is a reminder that HR planning cannot rely solely on the labor market.
Companies operating outside of Java, for example, cannot fully depend on the availability of ready-to-use digital talent.
In such conditions, companies need to participate in building the required talent through partnerships with universities, vocational schools, training institutions, and local governments.
Internship programs, industry-based training, competency certifications, and collaborative curriculum development can be part of a company's long-term strategy to meet its workforce needs.
In my view, this is where HR planning should play a broader role. Its task is not just to find people, but also to prepare people.
With this approach, companies do not just consume labor; they contribute to building a competency ecosystem that meets industry needs.
Layoffs Are Still Influenced by Many Factors
Of course, not all layoffs can be attributed to poor human resource planning.
Global economic conditions, declining market demand, changing consumption patterns, operational cost pressures, business competition, corporate restructuring, and technological developments can all influence a company's decision to reduce its workforce.
However, organizations with mature HR planning generally have more alternatives when facing change.
Companies can prepare several scenarios, such as transferring employees to units that still need labor, providing retraining, reconfiguring workloads, or limiting recruitment early on when signs of a business slowdown begin to appear.
Thus, layoffs can truly be positioned as a last resort after various other alternatives have been considered.
Solution: HR Planning Must Be Part of Business Strategy
Based on these conditions, there are several steps that I believe companies need to take.
First, companies need to periodically map employee competencies and compare them with business needs for the next three to five years. Through this mapping, companies can identify existing skills, skills that are losing relevance, and new competencies that must be developed immediately.
Second, companies should prioritize upskilling and reskilling programs for existing employees before deciding to lay them off or search for new talent externally.
Long-term employees generally understand the organizational culture, work processes, customers, and the company's character. In many cases, improving their capabilities can be a more efficient option than recruiting from scratch.
Third, the HR function must be involved from the business strategy formulation stage. Workforce planning should go hand-in-hand with expansion plans, technology investments, business model changes, and company targets.
Fourth, closer collaboration must be built between the government, the education sector, and industry so that the gap between graduate competencies and labor market needs can be narrowed. The education sector needs faster information regarding evolving industry needs, while companies must also be involved in the competency development process of prospective workers.
Fifth, companies need to leverage data and technology in the HR planning process. Human Resources Information Systems ( HRIS ), workforce data analytics, and various other supporting technologies can help companies map competencies, identify needs, and forecast labor requirements more accurately.
Conclusion
The high number of layoffs and the limited availability of digital talent in 2026 reveal a paradox in the Indonesian labor market. Amidst many workers losing their jobs, companies still struggle to find workers with the skills required for new needs.
This condition shows that human resource planning should no longer be considered a mere administrative routine.
HR planning is a foundation that determines an organization's ability to survive, grow, and adapt to changes in the business environment.
Companies that plan their human resource needs well will have more options when facing change. They can prepare employee competencies early, reduce skill gaps, and avoid overly reactive decisions when business conditions shift.
Ultimately, a company's best investment lies not only in machines, digital systems, or artificial intelligence, but also in the people who are prepared in a planned manner to face those changes.
News Sources
Meilina, K. (2026, August 24). Ministry of Manpower Records 43,805 Workers Laid Off Through July 2026. Katadata.co.id.
https://katadata.co.id/berita/industri/6a8bb9355eb18/kemnaker-catat-43805-pekerja-terkena-phk-hingga-juli-2026
Karlita, N. (2026, July 15). Indonesia's Digital Talent Lags Behind, EV-DCI 2026 Highlights HR Gap Threat. Industry.co.id.
https://www.industry.co.id/read/153144/talenta-digital-indonesia-tertinggal-ev-dci-2026-soroti-ancaman-kesenjangan-sdm
Christian, I. (2026, August 12). Addressing the Digital Talent Gap, IHCBS 2026 Prepares HR for the AI Era. Liputan6.com.
https://www.liputan6.com/bisnis/read/8268077/atasi-kesenjangan-talenta-digital-ihcbs-2026-siapkan-sdm-hadapi-era-ai
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